2024: The Labor Market Bubble Will Begin to Affect Financial Markets Unless Productivity ImprovesFinancial assets have soared in value in the past two months based on the belief the Fed has done enough to combat inflation. Market…Jan 1Jan 1
2023: Grey Rhino RecessionThe 2000s to date has been littered with black swan events, from 9/11 and the ensuing global war on terror, to the global financial crisis…Apr 23, 2023Apr 23, 2023
High Interest Rates Impair the Outlook for HomebuildersThere’s nothing controversial about the headline of this piece. It doesn’t take exceptional insight to come to the conclusion that a rate…Nov 10, 2022Nov 10, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance Wire2022: Financial Crisis with Chinese CharacteristicsRisks have been brewing in the Chinese property market for some time. There has been an ongoing debate as to whether this will lead to a…Mar 5, 2022Mar 5, 2022
Published inInsiderFinance WireInflation Just Peaked and is Heading Down FastAbout 13 months ago, I wrote a post explaining how loose monetary policy, oil markets, and supply chain issues were going to lead to 5%+…Jan 13, 2022Jan 13, 2022
Halo & Horn Effects in Life & MarketsOne psychological bias I’ve been thinking about lately is the halo/horn effect and in particular, its application in financial markets.Oct 31, 2021Oct 31, 2021
Published inInsiderFinance WireStrong Dollar & Deflation are on the WayKey Points:Sep 29, 2021Sep 29, 2021
China Risks Make Commodities a Big ShortChina has tightened monetary policy and taken an increasingly hostile attitude towards private enterprise over the past six monthsJul 31, 20211Jul 31, 20211
How to Profit on the Fed’s OverconfidenceThe Fed is making high risk speculation a very productive activity, with the liquidity backdrop they’ve provided to markets. In a world…Jan 26, 2021Jan 26, 2021
Monetary Policy is Too LooseCurrent monetary policy is setting the U.S. up for a period of high inflation and asset bubbles in 2021 that will inevitably be followed…Dec 10, 2020Dec 10, 2020
