Arun2024: The Labor Market Bubble Will Begin to Affect Financial Markets Unless Productivity ImprovesFinancial assets have soared in value in the past two months based on the belief the Fed has done enough to combat inflation. Market…4 min read·Jan 1, 2024----
Arun2023: Grey Rhino RecessionThe 2000s to date has been littered with black swan events, from 9/11 and the ensuing global war on terror, to the global financial crisis…3 min read·Apr 23, 2023----
ArunHigh Interest Rates Impair the Outlook for HomebuildersThere’s nothing controversial about the headline of this piece. It doesn’t take exceptional insight to come to the conclusion that a rate…4 min read·Nov 10, 2022----
AruninInsiderFinance Wire2022: Financial Crisis with Chinese CharacteristicsRisks have been brewing in the Chinese property market for some time. There has been an ongoing debate as to whether this will lead to a…4 min read·Mar 5, 2022----
AruninInsiderFinance WireInflation Just Peaked and is Heading Down FastAbout 13 months ago, I wrote a post explaining how loose monetary policy, oil markets, and supply chain issues were going to lead to 5%+…4 min read·Jan 13, 2022----
ArunHalo & Horn Effects in Life & MarketsOne psychological bias I’ve been thinking about lately is the halo/horn effect and in particular, its application in financial markets.4 min read·Oct 31, 2021----
AruninInsiderFinance WireStrong Dollar & Deflation are on the WayKey Points:5 min read·Sep 29, 2021----
ArunChina Risks Make Commodities a Big ShortChina has tightened monetary policy and taken an increasingly hostile attitude towards private enterprise over the past six months4 min read·Jul 31, 2021--1--1
ArunHow to Profit on the Fed’s OverconfidenceThe Fed is making high risk speculation a very productive activity, with the liquidity backdrop they’ve provided to markets. In a world…3 min read·Jan 26, 2021----
ArunMonetary Policy is Too LooseCurrent monetary policy is setting the U.S. up for a period of high inflation and asset bubbles in 2021 that will inevitably be followed…6 min read·Dec 10, 2020----