About 13 months ago, I wrote a post explaining how loose monetary policy, oil markets, and supply chain issues were going to lead to 5%+ inflation in the near future. At that time inflation was still well below 2%. …

One psychological bias I’ve been thinking about lately is the halo/horn effect and in particular, its application in financial markets. For background, the halo effect is the bias to view actions by someone you have a generally positive view on, positively. The horn effect is the opposite. Other’s actions influence…

Key Points: Accelerating wage growth in the U.S. will fuel the view that inflation is structural and not transitory This will serve to further encourage the Fed to taper bond purchases This tapering will exacerbate China’s dollar shortage and prevent the necessary easing required to prevent the rapid deceleration of…

China has tightened monetary policy and taken an increasingly hostile attitude towards private enterprise over the past six months This will have far-reaching effects due to the fragility of the Chinese economy, which has become increasingly dependent on debt growth for economic growth Many of the equities most sensitive to…

The Fed is making high risk speculation a very productive activity, with the liquidity backdrop they’ve provided to markets. In a world where Treasuries yield less than inflation, it actually makes sense to be indifferent towards price when investing in companies that can grow faster than inflation. …

Current monetary policy is setting the U.S. up for a period of high inflation and asset bubbles in 2021 that will inevitably be followed by a deflationary bust. …

For buy & hold investors, there are only two ways to generate returns in excess of the market. I’m going to go over these two ways and highlight a company which I believe checks both boxes on how to generate excess returns: FB Financial (NYSE: FBK). The first way is…

The ‘fog of war’ is a term used to describe how difficult it is to know what’s going on in a battle when you’re in the battle. There seems to be a parallel in financial markets: the ‘fog of recession’. No one seems to know what’s going on, so it…

China’s fight against deflation has just begun. As the Chinese Central Bank is forced into unconventionally loose monetary policy to fight deflation, the world will become awash with liquidity. Equities, such as Qudian (NYSE:QD), that are closely tied to liquidity conditions in China have the most upside against this macroeconomic…